H1B-GC
02-23 10:35 AM
As the Article says,Lou Dobb defends Legal Immigration in an Interview with Newsweek which is total Crap . He Attacked H1B Program on his Daily Show and the Guest was no Doubt Kim Berry to give his Input. These things make everyone laugh at Lou Dobbs , the Lofer.
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santb1975
09-28 06:05 PM
After 8 yrs of Bush, I sure am ready for Democrats to take over. America needs a change. But Sen. Obama's victory will surely spell doom and gloom for the EB community - of which I am one.
I have been in the United States for 10 years - LEGALLY. I came here for my Masters and I work as a Compliance Analyst in the Pharmaceutical Industry. I have bent over backwards to follow the letter of the law, irrespective of how convoluted it is. I pay taxes and contribute to the American economy and I hope that I can settle down in this great country.
I want the Democrats to win...but guess what - the failed CIR 2007 woke me up to the fact that Sen. Durbin will never make it easy for EB immigrants. His hostility towards this community is making me explore opportunities outside of the United States after spending 10 years in this great land. I have little bit more time to decide what I want to do but if things don't take a turn for the better on the Immigration front, I have made up my mind to pursue opportunities outside of the United States.
Till date, I only see Durbin driving immigration - and it is definitely against the EB community. My question to Sen. Obama - what do you have to offer to us, the highly skilled immigrants? Would you rather we just liquidate all our assets (home, stocks, bonds, vehicles, etc) here in America and take it with us to another country that is more welcoming???
I have been in the United States for 10 years - LEGALLY. I came here for my Masters and I work as a Compliance Analyst in the Pharmaceutical Industry. I have bent over backwards to follow the letter of the law, irrespective of how convoluted it is. I pay taxes and contribute to the American economy and I hope that I can settle down in this great country.
I want the Democrats to win...but guess what - the failed CIR 2007 woke me up to the fact that Sen. Durbin will never make it easy for EB immigrants. His hostility towards this community is making me explore opportunities outside of the United States after spending 10 years in this great land. I have little bit more time to decide what I want to do but if things don't take a turn for the better on the Immigration front, I have made up my mind to pursue opportunities outside of the United States.
Till date, I only see Durbin driving immigration - and it is definitely against the EB community. My question to Sen. Obama - what do you have to offer to us, the highly skilled immigrants? Would you rather we just liquidate all our assets (home, stocks, bonds, vehicles, etc) here in America and take it with us to another country that is more welcoming???
gimme_GC2006
03-27 03:47 PM
AO? Adjudicating officer?
Good luck, keep us posted.
Yes..
Thank you :D
Good luck, keep us posted.
Yes..
Thank you :D
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indianindian2006
08-02 02:21 PM
United Nations,
I do not have words to express how knowledgeable I find you in immigration related questions,You are very good.
Please answer on simple question for me....
What will be consequences if we file 485 without employer letter.Is EVL a part of initial evidence.
I do not have words to express how knowledgeable I find you in immigration related questions,You are very good.
Please answer on simple question for me....
What will be consequences if we file 485 without employer letter.Is EVL a part of initial evidence.
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H1B-GC
02-21 12:24 PM
But this *****(offensive word deleted) has 800,000 Viewers on his Show.Gets $6 Million From CNN and lives in a 300 Acre Home in Sussex County, New Jersey.:eek:
Ramba
08-05 03:35 PM
Wow ! So you are saying that no one qualifies for EB2 after 2004 !
I kindly disagree.
I am not saying no one qualified. Most of the Eb3 jobs requirements were modified to EB2 to cut-short the EB3 line. Then, why every employer (particularly in IT) files EB2 LC, than EB3 after 2005? Why does DOL is autiting EB2 requirements for IT/Engineering jobs now?. Before 2004, even if employers requires MS+4 years or BS+8 years DOL approves the LC. Why they don't do now? It is just everyone wants to go for EB2, if they have that qualification.
I kindly disagree.
I am not saying no one qualified. Most of the Eb3 jobs requirements were modified to EB2 to cut-short the EB3 line. Then, why every employer (particularly in IT) files EB2 LC, than EB3 after 2005? Why does DOL is autiting EB2 requirements for IT/Engineering jobs now?. Before 2004, even if employers requires MS+4 years or BS+8 years DOL approves the LC. Why they don't do now? It is just everyone wants to go for EB2, if they have that qualification.
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fcres
08-07 04:40 PM
UN,
I understand u had a topsy turvy ride to GC urself...and ur story is posted somewhere....Can you or someone who may know point me to it...ur GC interview and what not?
Is this what you were looking for? Its in this thread itself.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=103959&postcount=74
I understand u had a topsy turvy ride to GC urself...and ur story is posted somewhere....Can you or someone who may know point me to it...ur GC interview and what not?
Is this what you were looking for? Its in this thread itself.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=103959&postcount=74
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Macaca
03-06 09:04 PM
The Top 200 H-1B Employers Of 2006 (http://www.networkworld.com/community/?q=node/15273) By Brad Reese | Network World, 05/17/2007
Page 12 & 31 of Driving jobs and Innovation Offshore (http://www.nfap.com/pdf/071206study.pdf) The impact of high-skill Immigration Restrictions on America, National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) Policy Brief, Dec 2007
Top 19 Employers of New H-1Bs Petitions Approved in FY 2006
WIPRO LTD. 3,143
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 3,125
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 2,754
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LTD. 1,753
MICROSOFT CORP. 1,297
PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS INC. 969
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS U.S. 863
I-FLEX SOLUTIONS INC. 695
HCL AMERICA INC. 652
LARSEN & TOUBRO INFOTECH LTD. 624
TECH MAHINDRA AMERICAS INC. 614
INTEL CORP. 613
DELOITTE & TOUCHE LLP 545
ACCENTURE LLP 519
POLARIS SOFTWARE LAB INDIA LTD. 497
MPHASIS CORP. 445
SYNTEL CONSULTING INC. 415
ERNST & YOUNG LLP 396
LANCESOFT INC. 394
Other 88,070 (80.3 percent)
TOTAL 109,614 (0.07 % of U.S. labor force)
Source: USCIS
Explanatory note from USCIS: Employers were identified and counted on the basis of tax ID.
The number of approved petitions for new workers is not identical with the number of workers on the job because
workers are occasionally sponsored by more than one employer,
the job offer may subsequently be withdrawn,
the job offer may be declined, or
the worker if residing outside the country, may be denied a visa.
The total of 109,614 exceeds 65,000 regular plus 20,000 masters caps because it includes petitions for new workers exempted from the caps.
Fiscal year of petition approval often is earlier than fiscal year of worker start date. For example, about 50,000 H-1B petitions were approved in FY 2006 for a start date in FY 2007. The reason is that many petitions were filed in April beginning of cap season) and May by sponsors for workers beginning their employment in October---two different fiscal years.
The same phenomenon occurred this year, offsetting last year's effect to an unknown extent, but rendering straight comparisons between petition approvals and employment starts in a fiscal year subject to error and misinterpretation.
The CIA Fact Book estimates the size of the U.S. labor force in 2006 at 151.4 million.
The list in the table is for individuals who were hired on an approved H-1B petition for “initial employment” in 2006. Petitions approved for “continuing employment” would include both H-1B renewals by that same employer and individuals who had been working on H-1B status for another employer.
Pages 11-12
Critics charge that “most” H-1B visas are used by companies that engage in “outsourcing.” The 10 companies cited in these reports are Infosys Technologies, Wipro Technologies, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Patni Computer Systems, Mphasis, HCL America, Deloitte & Touche, Tata Consultancy Services, Accenture and Satyam Computer Services.
WIPRO LTD. 3,143
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 3,125
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 2,754
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LTD. 1,753
PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS INC. 969
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS U.S. 863
HCL AMERICA INC. 652
DELOITTE & TOUCHE LLP 545
ACCENTURE LLP 519
MPHASIS CORP. 445
Total 14,768
The 10 companies cited most by critics used less than 14 percent of new H-1B petitions approved in 2006 for initial employment (new hires who were not in H-1B status for a prior employer), according to USCIS.
The new H-1B professionals hired in 2006 by these global companies totaled fewer than 15,000, representing less than 4 percent of the approximately 440,000 people employed by these 10 companies worldwide.
It would be difficult to claim such a small number and proportion of employees are leading to the loss of a large number of American jobs, particularly within the context of a U.S. economy producing employment for over 145 million people. In fact, it is not clear it is leading to the loss of any American jobs.
The vast majority of H-1B visas go to U.S. high tech companies, financial institutions and U.S. universities.
Senators Grassley and Durbin wrote a letter to the companies on this list with headquarters in India.
Crackdown on Indian Outsourcing Firms (http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/may2007/db20070515_218119.htm?chan=search) Two senators are probing how Indian outsourcing firms use U.S. work visas, with an eye on new restrictions by Peter Elstrom | Business Week, May 15, 2007
Lawmakers ask foreign firms for work visa data (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=63251&postcount=896) By Donna Smith, Reuters, Monday, May 14, 2007
Senators questioning tech company use of H1-B visa program (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=63122&postcount=892) By Suzanne Gamboa | Associated Press, 05/14/2007
Page 12 & 31 of Driving jobs and Innovation Offshore (http://www.nfap.com/pdf/071206study.pdf) The impact of high-skill Immigration Restrictions on America, National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) Policy Brief, Dec 2007
Top 19 Employers of New H-1Bs Petitions Approved in FY 2006
WIPRO LTD. 3,143
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 3,125
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 2,754
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LTD. 1,753
MICROSOFT CORP. 1,297
PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS INC. 969
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS U.S. 863
I-FLEX SOLUTIONS INC. 695
HCL AMERICA INC. 652
LARSEN & TOUBRO INFOTECH LTD. 624
TECH MAHINDRA AMERICAS INC. 614
INTEL CORP. 613
DELOITTE & TOUCHE LLP 545
ACCENTURE LLP 519
POLARIS SOFTWARE LAB INDIA LTD. 497
MPHASIS CORP. 445
SYNTEL CONSULTING INC. 415
ERNST & YOUNG LLP 396
LANCESOFT INC. 394
Other 88,070 (80.3 percent)
TOTAL 109,614 (0.07 % of U.S. labor force)
Source: USCIS
Explanatory note from USCIS: Employers were identified and counted on the basis of tax ID.
The number of approved petitions for new workers is not identical with the number of workers on the job because
workers are occasionally sponsored by more than one employer,
the job offer may subsequently be withdrawn,
the job offer may be declined, or
the worker if residing outside the country, may be denied a visa.
The total of 109,614 exceeds 65,000 regular plus 20,000 masters caps because it includes petitions for new workers exempted from the caps.
Fiscal year of petition approval often is earlier than fiscal year of worker start date. For example, about 50,000 H-1B petitions were approved in FY 2006 for a start date in FY 2007. The reason is that many petitions were filed in April beginning of cap season) and May by sponsors for workers beginning their employment in October---two different fiscal years.
The same phenomenon occurred this year, offsetting last year's effect to an unknown extent, but rendering straight comparisons between petition approvals and employment starts in a fiscal year subject to error and misinterpretation.
The CIA Fact Book estimates the size of the U.S. labor force in 2006 at 151.4 million.
The list in the table is for individuals who were hired on an approved H-1B petition for “initial employment” in 2006. Petitions approved for “continuing employment” would include both H-1B renewals by that same employer and individuals who had been working on H-1B status for another employer.
Pages 11-12
Critics charge that “most” H-1B visas are used by companies that engage in “outsourcing.” The 10 companies cited in these reports are Infosys Technologies, Wipro Technologies, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Patni Computer Systems, Mphasis, HCL America, Deloitte & Touche, Tata Consultancy Services, Accenture and Satyam Computer Services.
WIPRO LTD. 3,143
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 3,125
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. 2,754
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LTD. 1,753
PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS INC. 969
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS U.S. 863
HCL AMERICA INC. 652
DELOITTE & TOUCHE LLP 545
ACCENTURE LLP 519
MPHASIS CORP. 445
Total 14,768
The 10 companies cited most by critics used less than 14 percent of new H-1B petitions approved in 2006 for initial employment (new hires who were not in H-1B status for a prior employer), according to USCIS.
The new H-1B professionals hired in 2006 by these global companies totaled fewer than 15,000, representing less than 4 percent of the approximately 440,000 people employed by these 10 companies worldwide.
It would be difficult to claim such a small number and proportion of employees are leading to the loss of a large number of American jobs, particularly within the context of a U.S. economy producing employment for over 145 million people. In fact, it is not clear it is leading to the loss of any American jobs.
The vast majority of H-1B visas go to U.S. high tech companies, financial institutions and U.S. universities.
Senators Grassley and Durbin wrote a letter to the companies on this list with headquarters in India.
Crackdown on Indian Outsourcing Firms (http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/may2007/db20070515_218119.htm?chan=search) Two senators are probing how Indian outsourcing firms use U.S. work visas, with an eye on new restrictions by Peter Elstrom | Business Week, May 15, 2007
Lawmakers ask foreign firms for work visa data (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=63251&postcount=896) By Donna Smith, Reuters, Monday, May 14, 2007
Senators questioning tech company use of H1-B visa program (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=63122&postcount=892) By Suzanne Gamboa | Associated Press, 05/14/2007
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Refugee_New
01-06 02:59 PM
If the thief is hurling bombs and rockets towards police and other innocent people, then yes. Else more innocents will be killed by barbaric thief.
Thats why Indian Govt. freed ruthless terrorists to save innocent civilians?
Don't write crap just for the sake of argument.
When Indian government can release ruthless terrorists in order to save Indians, Do you think people belong to Palestinian govt. elected by Palestinians will hide in schools in order to get killed by ruthless enemy?
Don't you hear the same lie again and again year over year? If Hamas is using school kids as thier shield, then how do you think Palestenian people have elected the same people who cause their kids death rule their country?
Don't you think?
Thats why Indian Govt. freed ruthless terrorists to save innocent civilians?
Don't write crap just for the sake of argument.
When Indian government can release ruthless terrorists in order to save Indians, Do you think people belong to Palestinian govt. elected by Palestinians will hide in schools in order to get killed by ruthless enemy?
Don't you hear the same lie again and again year over year? If Hamas is using school kids as thier shield, then how do you think Palestenian people have elected the same people who cause their kids death rule their country?
Don't you think?
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paskal
04-09 11:50 AM
Yes, pete, other people should have hurdles. So when they stumble on those hurdles, it would be your gain.
Its a zero sum game.
We cannot all unite and work on this issue. So let's divide ourselves. Let's split IV into 2 organization, one for EB3 dumbasses who are getting a free ride and didnt go thru the whole 9 yards , and other for smart kids like you and rimzhim.
Let me ask both of you. If you are that smart, how come you are not applying for EB1. I thought researchers would qualify for EB1. Why are you facing difficulty? Could it be that you are not really that good? Because the system does have an HOV lane for scientists to cruise to greencard. Its called EB1. And its current for most categories. What about that?
Why dont you join the fast lane of EB1 and leave the bachelor's degree losers behind who didnt thru the whole 9 yards?
given you find someone's opinion distatsteful, yours is no better. unneeded hostility and provocation help no one. please chill out. everytime something new comes up we are at each others throats. there are better ways to express yourself than personal attacks. i sympathise with your viewpoint but your attitude make me want to run far away.
Its a zero sum game.
We cannot all unite and work on this issue. So let's divide ourselves. Let's split IV into 2 organization, one for EB3 dumbasses who are getting a free ride and didnt go thru the whole 9 yards , and other for smart kids like you and rimzhim.
Let me ask both of you. If you are that smart, how come you are not applying for EB1. I thought researchers would qualify for EB1. Why are you facing difficulty? Could it be that you are not really that good? Because the system does have an HOV lane for scientists to cruise to greencard. Its called EB1. And its current for most categories. What about that?
Why dont you join the fast lane of EB1 and leave the bachelor's degree losers behind who didnt thru the whole 9 yards?
given you find someone's opinion distatsteful, yours is no better. unneeded hostility and provocation help no one. please chill out. everytime something new comes up we are at each others throats. there are better ways to express yourself than personal attacks. i sympathise with your viewpoint but your attitude make me want to run far away.
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chintu25
08-05 11:55 AM
I am requesting an amendment to the spelling of "mahaul".
I think it would sound better if we spelled it as "mahole" :D
Mohol --> :D
I think it would sound better if we spelled it as "mahole" :D
Mohol --> :D
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satishku_2000
05-16 12:41 AM
Law is giving them to right for their unfair practice. So congress is trying to fix the law. Most of them may be abiding law but using unfair practice which affects many people. So there is nothing wrong in fixing the law. Actually they should have applied H1b whenever they need. But they applied H1b for 1 or 2 years so that they will find a job later whereas companies which are having immediate requirement could not find H1b. Is this right practice though 100% legal
If congress so concerned about outsourcing to India or some other country , why dont they ban outsourcing completely by american companies. I think one of biggest user of outsourcing is US army that is directly controlled by U.S congress. :D
If congress so concerned about outsourcing to India or some other country , why dont they ban outsourcing completely by american companies. I think one of biggest user of outsourcing is US army that is directly controlled by U.S congress. :D
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delax
07-14 10:14 AM
Eb2- I people are wrong when they think any steps taken by EB3-I are because of jealousy. I have contributed in each of IV effort knowing fully well that Eb3I is not going to be benefited by the effort. Still someone was getting the benefit. Now if EB3I want to do something, what is the issue? If a person from Eb2I with PD of 2006 feels that the reason behind efforts taken by a EB3 I person with PD of 2001/2002 is jealousy, then the EB2I person is being very narrow in his/her thinking. It should not take a huge amount of brainpower to realize the frustration and sadness the EB3 I person would be feeling. Irrespective of this I think a lot of people who contribute to IV campaigns are EB3I.
Everyone irrespective of what category he or she is would very easily realize that Eb3I needs help, else it is going nowhere. By reading comments in this thread, my fear is coming true that the help needed may not come from IV. Once all EB2 people get their GC, there would be no further fight for EB3.
Sure EB3-I needs help, but if the help is in the form of taking numbers away from EB2 and giving them to EB3 just based on the length of wait, then I have my serious objections to this proposal. I have said openly that I will object to it - I have never seen a post that says plainly - Yes EB3-I is stuck for 7-8 years and therefore they want numbers from EB2 because EB2 has moved ahead by 2 years. The irony is that all earlier posts imply this and talk about this request for handover in a very general way (75/25 break up, recession, lawyer input, etc).
Visa recapture, country cap elimination is where the solution lies. That is the REAL help that EB3-Retro wants. Any short term fix purely out of sympathy, empathy, humanity, kindness is not recogniszed by law.
I know people will pile on for speaking plainly and in a matter of fact manner, but I am amazed at the innuendo, implications and lack of straight talk.
Everyone irrespective of what category he or she is would very easily realize that Eb3I needs help, else it is going nowhere. By reading comments in this thread, my fear is coming true that the help needed may not come from IV. Once all EB2 people get their GC, there would be no further fight for EB3.
Sure EB3-I needs help, but if the help is in the form of taking numbers away from EB2 and giving them to EB3 just based on the length of wait, then I have my serious objections to this proposal. I have said openly that I will object to it - I have never seen a post that says plainly - Yes EB3-I is stuck for 7-8 years and therefore they want numbers from EB2 because EB2 has moved ahead by 2 years. The irony is that all earlier posts imply this and talk about this request for handover in a very general way (75/25 break up, recession, lawyer input, etc).
Visa recapture, country cap elimination is where the solution lies. That is the REAL help that EB3-Retro wants. Any short term fix purely out of sympathy, empathy, humanity, kindness is not recogniszed by law.
I know people will pile on for speaking plainly and in a matter of fact manner, but I am amazed at the innuendo, implications and lack of straight talk.
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alterego
04-06 09:35 AM
I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
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Marphad
03-26 04:44 PM
Legal base employment candidates never had any representation as far as I know of until Immigration voice was formed. The other groups had some organized activity.
From some of the postings I have seen from IV Core; I believe they know what they are doing. They seem to be getting right advice of when to go on offensive and when to be defensive.
It is difficult for candidates/people who only have five to six years of history in this country to know how the system works here; ie., what arguments work and what arguments don't and what other side will do in ruining your credibility if they are pushed.
Everyone wants their greencard and they try to find reasons which they think others will appreciate (whether they have much merit or not).
Completely agreed.
From some of the postings I have seen from IV Core; I believe they know what they are doing. They seem to be getting right advice of when to go on offensive and when to be defensive.
It is difficult for candidates/people who only have five to six years of history in this country to know how the system works here; ie., what arguments work and what arguments don't and what other side will do in ruining your credibility if they are pushed.
Everyone wants their greencard and they try to find reasons which they think others will appreciate (whether they have much merit or not).
Completely agreed.
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validIV
06-25 12:28 PM
All you and the renters here are doing is speculating. Speculators, from my experience, always buy and sell at the wrong time because all they do is guess. Even if prices do go lower in 2011, speculators will speculate that it will go down further and continue to hold off then miss their chance. Same problem with now in 2009, you missed the low interest rates and who knows when they will come back down to the 4s again. Personally I hope they do come back, cuz I missed a chance to refi one of my properties. You are not only losing your rent money to a landlord, but you are also losing valuable time that you could've used to knock off your mortgage.
As for only putting 20% down and people saying that they want to buy their homes outright� they are idiots. You never pay full price or more than 50% for a home, even if you can afford it. Pay the downpayment, then invest the rest of that money elsewhere and build even more from that money. That is called leverage and thats what good smart investors do. They use the system, they leverage their money and NEVER pay full price. If you have $800,000 and want to buy an $800,000 3 family house, u dont use all ur money on it to pay it all in one shot. You buy 3 or 4 of them, paying 20% down then rent it out, use the rent money to pay the mortgage hold and sell after 20-30 years. Use the rest of the money and invest that in a portfolio or start a business. After 30 years all your properties will be paid off by renters like the people here. You can sell them, give them to your kids, whatever. But don't tell me you're not coming out ahead.
And for the people that are proud to have more than 1 car and paid it all off� a car is not an investment. Unless you buy an antique that you can sell for more than what you paid for, it is not comparable to owning a home. I have a car, it degraded in value the minute i drove it off the lot. Its great for vacations, going around, getting to work whatever. But I am not proud to own a degrading liability even when its been fully paid 5 years after I bought it with no chance of increasing its value.
I have no problems with renters like you or others in this forum. I make money from you. I don't care if you terminate your lease early because another renter will take your place. All renters do is throw away their money and will never get it back. I will use your rent money to pay my mortgage. But don't try to tell me that owning a home is a bad idea. Owning your own home is NEVER a bad idea and 68% of America agrees. You will ALWAYS need a place to live in.
Sledge,
Nobody is saying that the world is coming to and end in 2 years.IMHO myself and many others would agree that long term buying a house makes sense. The question is does buying now if you haven't already bought your primary residential home make any sense.
From the current data, Do you think a guy who buys a house in 2009 would come ahead of somebody who would buys in 2011 when the housing market may have fully bottomed out ? I know its impossible to time the market. But all indicators to name a few below point that home prices should continue to decline.
Unemployment is still on the way up. We will cross 10% anytime soon is a given.
Excess housing inventory
Home prices are still above the trend line. Historically its common for the correction to swing even below the trend line before it stabilizes.
Again IMHO, If you haven't bought a home yet, Save so that you can make a bigger down payment (Own more of the house when you buy one) and check the market again mid 2010.
Giving your example.
Lets say guy buys in 2009, and another guy buys in 2011 (Assuming home prices would have further gone down using existing data points).. Who do you think would come ahead in 2019.
As for only putting 20% down and people saying that they want to buy their homes outright� they are idiots. You never pay full price or more than 50% for a home, even if you can afford it. Pay the downpayment, then invest the rest of that money elsewhere and build even more from that money. That is called leverage and thats what good smart investors do. They use the system, they leverage their money and NEVER pay full price. If you have $800,000 and want to buy an $800,000 3 family house, u dont use all ur money on it to pay it all in one shot. You buy 3 or 4 of them, paying 20% down then rent it out, use the rent money to pay the mortgage hold and sell after 20-30 years. Use the rest of the money and invest that in a portfolio or start a business. After 30 years all your properties will be paid off by renters like the people here. You can sell them, give them to your kids, whatever. But don't tell me you're not coming out ahead.
And for the people that are proud to have more than 1 car and paid it all off� a car is not an investment. Unless you buy an antique that you can sell for more than what you paid for, it is not comparable to owning a home. I have a car, it degraded in value the minute i drove it off the lot. Its great for vacations, going around, getting to work whatever. But I am not proud to own a degrading liability even when its been fully paid 5 years after I bought it with no chance of increasing its value.
I have no problems with renters like you or others in this forum. I make money from you. I don't care if you terminate your lease early because another renter will take your place. All renters do is throw away their money and will never get it back. I will use your rent money to pay my mortgage. But don't try to tell me that owning a home is a bad idea. Owning your own home is NEVER a bad idea and 68% of America agrees. You will ALWAYS need a place to live in.
Sledge,
Nobody is saying that the world is coming to and end in 2 years.IMHO myself and many others would agree that long term buying a house makes sense. The question is does buying now if you haven't already bought your primary residential home make any sense.
From the current data, Do you think a guy who buys a house in 2009 would come ahead of somebody who would buys in 2011 when the housing market may have fully bottomed out ? I know its impossible to time the market. But all indicators to name a few below point that home prices should continue to decline.
Unemployment is still on the way up. We will cross 10% anytime soon is a given.
Excess housing inventory
Home prices are still above the trend line. Historically its common for the correction to swing even below the trend line before it stabilizes.
Again IMHO, If you haven't bought a home yet, Save so that you can make a bigger down payment (Own more of the house when you buy one) and check the market again mid 2010.
Giving your example.
Lets say guy buys in 2009, and another guy buys in 2011 (Assuming home prices would have further gone down using existing data points).. Who do you think would come ahead in 2019.
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h1techSlave
12-26 10:01 PM
Nobody's gonna come to wipe your ass. You gotta do it yourself.
Yeah man, you put it correclty. India was always hoping that would happen.
Yeah man, you put it correclty. India was always hoping that would happen.
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khelanphelan
05-24 12:11 PM
Did the brownback amendment pass with the CIR?
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Rayyan
01-07 11:07 AM
Pathetic!!!!!!!!!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For all the people on this forum rather on this topic, who think that they are human , professionals, broad-minded ,highly educated .
I just have on word for all you
PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!!
Now before you all start hammering me , I don't belong to any religion, I am a HUMAN BEing unlike you all (inculding new_refugee)
__________________
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For all the people on this forum rather on this topic, who think that they are human , professionals, broad-minded ,highly educated .
I just have on word for all you
PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!!
Now before you all start hammering me , I don't belong to any religion, I am a HUMAN BEing unlike you all (inculding new_refugee)
__________________
dixie
07-16 12:38 PM
If you go to anti-H1-b sites, They are displaying things like, Advertisements listing H1-b available for a number of US cities. These are ads taken from body shops. The anti-h1-b sites use this as a propaganda. I think it hurts all of us. :D
Exactly.Anti-H1B sites are only looking for propaganda material. You think they will start loving us if all body-shops are eliminated ? People like Norm matloff and programmers guild oppose all H1-B period.Whether it is from well known MNCs or your so-called "body shops". These are usually the same folks whining against outsourcing, free trade, the fact that everyone else is catching up .. about the world in general. Stop wasting time convincing these loosers.They are neither representative of the american public at large nor are the body shops representative of our community. If you think body shoppers are the only folks who hire H1-Bs, read about all the press articles in the "IV in the news" section and please let me know how many body-shop employees were mentioned there. We KNOW we make a contribution to this country; industry knows it too. We dont need to apologise to people like PG,lou dobbs and co for supposedly "eating their lunch".
As for pushing for H1-B reform, there is absolutely no gaurantee there will be any accompaying GC reform. Remember AC21 ? it tripled the number of H1-Bs with no increase in GCs ... the result is the current mess. Why did it happen ? because there was no one pushing for GC reform.
Exactly.Anti-H1B sites are only looking for propaganda material. You think they will start loving us if all body-shops are eliminated ? People like Norm matloff and programmers guild oppose all H1-B period.Whether it is from well known MNCs or your so-called "body shops". These are usually the same folks whining against outsourcing, free trade, the fact that everyone else is catching up .. about the world in general. Stop wasting time convincing these loosers.They are neither representative of the american public at large nor are the body shops representative of our community. If you think body shoppers are the only folks who hire H1-Bs, read about all the press articles in the "IV in the news" section and please let me know how many body-shop employees were mentioned there. We KNOW we make a contribution to this country; industry knows it too. We dont need to apologise to people like PG,lou dobbs and co for supposedly "eating their lunch".
As for pushing for H1-B reform, there is absolutely no gaurantee there will be any accompaying GC reform. Remember AC21 ? it tripled the number of H1-Bs with no increase in GCs ... the result is the current mess. Why did it happen ? because there was no one pushing for GC reform.
bondgoli007
01-06 04:09 PM
Didn't Narendra Modi followed the footstep of Isreali counterparts by killing innocents in Gujarat?
Its upto Indians to decide which type of leaders we need. Like Gandhi or Modi.
Once again you choose to antagonize the very people you are trying to protest along with... If you treat us like enemies then why even post so much on this thread?
Most of the folks here who lost their cool and abused you were provoked by you...Same is the case even in the real world. If you choose not to acknowledge that then my friend, how can you ever hope and pray for peace and friendship?
Its upto Indians to decide which type of leaders we need. Like Gandhi or Modi.
Once again you choose to antagonize the very people you are trying to protest along with... If you treat us like enemies then why even post so much on this thread?
Most of the folks here who lost their cool and abused you were provoked by you...Same is the case even in the real world. If you choose not to acknowledge that then my friend, how can you ever hope and pray for peace and friendship?
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